New Prospects, Old Worries...

One year ago, I was deep into the production and composition of my thesis. Little else mattered. I churned out chapter after chapter, sending it to my adviser for review and then taking it back for revisions. It was a weird type of purgatory; for even though I was steadily whittling down the faults and cracks in my writing, it always felt like I was "busy going nowhere." The work of writing and revising was constant, but the product I made never seemed to measure up. Then it happened. My prof. emailed me an approval for my manuscript in the late Spring and I was approved to publicly defend my thesis and prepare for Summer graduation. Defending led to approval by the thesis editor which led to graduation. I still remember the day that I received my diploma in the mail; I sat and stared at my Master's degree, wondering if the time I had invested into its acquisition was worth it. It's the kind of introspection that I imagine Niccolo Machiavelli must have had after writing The Prince or Henry David Thoreau after writing Walden. A point where each author must look at its creation and ask, "OK, now what?"

For me, the answer was easy. I had applied to several jobs, PhD programs and law schools in anticipation that I was bound to get at least one of them. I have never been more wrong in all my life. All of my prospects dried up like autumn leaves. Refusals came in waves with each letter signifying another closed door. When the new academic year rolled around, things were at rock-bottom. No job offers, no PhD prospects and no way out of SLC. It was a time that I've come to call "The Summer of Fail," for lack of better words. Christ, what a dark time. I could barely look Lisa in the face and the unfaltering love and respect from my children only made me feel more wretched. If they couldn't count on me, then who?

Thankfully, all was not lost. My adviser offered me a year of funding for the U's PhD program.
It was a year of elbow-room to try again...A second chance to get on my feet.

I've since made the most of my mulligan. I've traveled to (my third) GEOINT and set wheels in motion for a shot at a job. I've been in touch with potential advisers at good, quality political geography schools in hopes that one of them will be impressed by who I am and what I can offer. I'm even in the process of trying to publish the old thesis and present my findings at next year's AAG meeting in NYC. I'd like to think that I'm better prepared for the application processes this time around, but there's a quiet nagging in the back of my mind that takes me back to the SoF and its lost opportunities. Who's to say the outcome of my last batch of apps won't be replicated? What makes this go-around different than the Summer of 2011? What if history repeats itself? Exactly how many times can I pick myself up after hitting the ground?

It makes me shudder to think about it. This type of doubt always creeps in and damages part of my resolve before I can catch it. But writing about it like this, it helps. It helps when I identify and keep these fears at arm's reach. Not necessarily so I can "understand" what's at stake. Trust me, after being a parent for twelve years, I know exactly what I've got to lose. No. Knowing the stakes allows me to prepare. It allows me to dig in and put contingencies in place. I will not be caught off guard, regardless of the outcome.

And deep down I know that, unless I'm dead, I will get up after every fall. I will recover from every setback. I will regroup and soldier on. It's a strength given to me from my family.

Now comes the tough part...Having to rely on others for my advancement.
Here goes nothing.

Willie Colon said it best:
"Si el destino me vuelve a traicionar
te juro que no puedo fracasar
estoy cansado de tanto esperar
y estoy seguro que mi suerte cambiara
pero ¿cuando será?"

Thesis Abstract and Defense Announcement

Well, the time has finally come to defend my masters thesis. I'm a bit nervous to say the least, but no more nervous than when I wonder where we'll end up after the Summer.
Anyhow, here's the abstract. I hope to see a lot of folks there.

ABSTRACT

An Investigation of the Philosophical Changes of the Abu Sayyaf Group
Using Geospatial Analysis

Thomas C. Zumbado

Political science scholars believe that the ASG’s propensity for accumulating funds through hostage ransoming and other criminal activity has caused the organization to drift away from its radical Islamic foundations and become nothing more than a gang of bandits. This research explores this claim by applying geospatial and temporal analysis to ASG terrorist activity from 1994 to 2008 to determine whether the body of ASG attack data is congruent with the political objectives put forth by the group at their inception, or more suited to criminal patterns of activity that epitomize monetary gains as the highest objective.

This is done through the pursuit of four research objectives that explore if attack data display an operational terror-to-crime shift. Objectives one, two and three compare the attack data distribution to map overlays of economic level, ethnic composition and religion to identify where the majority of attacks occur. This identifies if the ASG is prone to conducting attacks in areas predominantly populated by their constituency, which are the poor, Muslim Tausugs of the southern Philippines. The fourth objective qualitatively examines the historical timeline of the ASG by comparing it to Dishman’s (2001) theory on the ideological transformation of terrorist groups. The results of these four objectives are combined and measured in the decision rule to evaluate whether ASG attack data supports the more popular claims of a philosophical shift. Applied methods include spatio-temporal analysis and geostatistics (Getis-Ord hot spot analysis and mean center progression).

Results of analysis indicate that the majority of ASG attacks occur in the “Constituency Overlay,” a trivariate convergence area where the majority of the population are poor, Muslim Tausugs. In addition, temporal analysis displays that attacks localized and peaked around the CO in accordance with Dishman’s benchmarks for a terror-to-crime transformation. It is concluded that the majority of ASG attacks are driven towards crime due to the group’s tendency towards a high frequency of moneymaking attacks within the areas of constituency. Based on the criteria of the decision rule, the patterns of attack data indicate that ASG operations have been more inclined towards criminal goals rather than ideological goals since the death of their founder, Abdurajak Janjalani.

Thesis Acknowledgements...

My thesis is getting close to being done. Tonight, I'm sending it off to my committee for approval for defense. As my readers, I thought you might like to read the acknowledgments.

This thesis and my journey through graduate school would not have been possible without the patient wisdom of my adviser, Dr. George Hepner, and he will always have my undying gratitude. All the advice, support and encouragement he has offered have kept me on track throughout the whole process.

I’d also like to think my committee members: Dr. Richard Medina, for his perspectives on the graduate experience, friendship, and dedication to challenging me to make this the best project it could be; Dr. Benjamin Judkins, whose mentorship and friendship, not only with this research, but also in the past few years, have been inestimable to me; and Dr. Thomas Kontuly, for all the “kitchen encouragement” and for agreeing to join my adventure on such short notice. Thanks for always having my back, guys.

I wish to express my gratitude and respect to the endless list of scholars who have meticulously pieced bits of theory, science, culture and history together to build the multidisciplinary world we call Terrorism Studies. May we always remain dedicated to our cause, for there is still much to do.

Finally, I’d like to thank my loving wife, Lisa, for her patience and understanding of all the hurdles of research and grad school. She is my muse and the mortar that binds our family together. And my children, Vincent and Amelia, for their unfaltering love and admiration.

This is for you, son.